September 25 Risk of severe storm this afternoon

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September 25, 2022

Sunday morning update

The weather system moving through today pushed slightly warmer air this morning with some light showers. The main impulse will be with a strong cold front this afternoon and evening. The storm timeline and live radar are below.

It looks like a few storms will occur anytime after 1 p.m. These will come with the risk of damaging winds, large hail and even a tornado. There may therefore be a watch issued for the region and/or local warnings for individual cells. Exterior shots may require a plan B approach to play it safe.

Further, we must observe the progress of Tropical Storm Ian. It’s expected to become a major hurricane before reaching Florida (track continues to move west) and then bring heavy rain next weekend.

Morning temperatures

Still cool this morning with most of the area in the 50s and under cloud cover.

Morning surface weather

A warm front is moving with a line of showers along the Maryland-Pennsylvania border. More rain to the north with this initial pulse. Several lines of storms will form today ahead of and with the cold front spreading across the rest of our region.

NOAA Severe Storm Hazard

Most of the region is at risk of severe storms. To be considered severe and warrant a watch or warning, it must contain winds greater than 58 mph, hail greater than 1 inch in diameter, and or even have an isolated tornado. Torrential downpours are possible but brief. Lighting is a risk with any storm, even if it’s not severe.

LIVE RADAR WIDGET

Radar display and lighting. Morning showers will be along the Maryland and Pennsylvania line with heavier cells over the mountains and north of the border.

The second push is probably after noon.

Radar simulator

Please note that this product often underestimated rainfall coverage and intensity and slower/later than verification.

HRRR entertainment: 12 p.m. to 11 p.m.

We should consider a risk of thunderstorms at any time this afternoon… Especially after 2 p.m. in metropolitan areas. This may persist until midnight on the Lower East Coast.

Severe thunderstorms radar for Sunday, September 25

Timeline slider—> Animation HRRR: 12:00 p.m. to 11:00 p.m.

This is the same as above with you controlling snapshots.

Consider a buffer about 1 hour earlier than indicated.

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Afternoon temperatures

In case you missed it…

That thing in the Saturday night sky

Space X had a rocket launch and it was seen all over the Mid-Atlantic region. This was the first video I was able to upload to Facebook, and I realize many of you may have missed it. So this is it. I hope you will have the opportunity to see the comments. There are many additional videos and photos, I’ve lost count. But more are added and it’s amazing to see both the different perspectives and reactions.

CLIMATE DATA

TODAY September 25

Normal low in Baltimore: 55ºF

Record 35ºF in 1963

Baltimore normal high: 76°F

Record 97ºF 1970

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When is the typical first frost?

Average Freeze and Freeze Dates in Maryland and Pennsylvania

Monday temperatures

Morning

Afternoon

Tropical Storm Ian: Sunday Morning Update

Long term forecast for Ian

SFP model

From Thursday afternoon to Sunday evening

The track continues to move west and the GFS is one of the more westerly. This adjustment brings more rain for us next Saturday, and it now lingers into Sunday.

Also note: We will be in a freezing air mass, so despite the remnants of a tropical system, we should have freezing rain.

Forecast of Tropical Storm Ian in Florida

7-day forecast

Most of next week will be dry and seasonal, trending cooler. Next weekend’s rainfall will depend on Ian’s behavior. A slight adjustment of the runway to touchdown will determine how strong and how much moisture it can push inland.

COMPARE TO PAST

If you want a snowy winter, a busy tropical season AFTER a quiet August has already done it.

August record for unnamed tropical storms: Take a closer look at the snow that follows

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