Chronology of rains and storms Thursday, October 12

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Wednesday evening update

A strong cold front is crossing the country and will reach the east coast on Thursday evening. We expect morning rain and heavy storms in the afternoon and evening across Maryland and the Mid Atlantic. A small chance that some of these storms will become violent. This may include dangerous lightning, damaging winds, small hail and a low risk of an isolated tornado.

Below is a quick look at the setup and simulation timeline for Thursday.

Backtracking for a moment: This system triggered several severe storm outbreaks in the central United States and the Upper Midwest, with Wisconsin leading and centering. This video was captured in the Big Bend/Vernon areas.

Tornado Free Squalls Video

Wednesday evening surface weather

The cold front extends to Detroit, Cincinnati and Memphis. Strong storms were still active in the mountains of Tennessee and Kentucky. It will be this energy in front of the front Thursday that will concern us in the mid-Atlantic.

Radar simulation Thursday

NAM 3 Km model: 6:00 a.m. to 10:00 p.m.

A line of squalls will develop in the afternoon… This is where the risk of a severe storm lies.

Storm radar forecast for Thursday afternoon October 12

Timeline slider —-> 2:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.

Squall line tracking. This product has always been slow by an hour or two. So we are adjusting expectations in the morning report.

This squall line may contain the risk of severe thunderstorm cells.

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Please come back tomorrow morning. I will have a full report with a new schedule and forecast posted around 6am

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