Another big storm is coming, but what will it bring to Minnesota?

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“You can’t stop what’s happening,” the old man told Tommy Lee Jones’ character at the end of There is no country for old people. Such words ring true when talking about the weather, and so does the next major storm system which will no doubt make some noise as it crosses the center of the country next week.

According to the National Weather Service, a strong system will likely impact the Upper Midwest Tuesday through Thursday. It’s still too early to speculate on rain and/or snowfall totals, but “heavy rainfall” is expected, according to the NWS.

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“The location of the heaviest precipitation and precipitation type remains uncertain,” advises the NWS Twin Cities, adding this in its forecast discussion:

“Anyway, a major storm system will move over the plains next week with several [models] indicating large amounts of [precipitation] across the Upper Midwest. The exact location will depend on surface characteristics and system speed. Depending on the type of precipitation, it still seems likely that the start will be a mix of sleet/rain/snow or freezing rain, especially in the north [forecast area covered by the NWS Twin Cities]. Once the storm system begins to reduce the much colder air Wednesday/Wednesday evening, the precipitation will turn to snow from west to east.”

This basically means there could be a mix of rain and sleet starting Tuesday before temperatures drop and precipitation turns to snow at some point on Wednesday.

The NWS Duluth says clearing snow will be possible for parts of northern Minnesota, but they don’t know when and where the greatest accumulation of snow and ice will be.

An interesting nugget in the discussion of the NWS Duluth forecast is that it says the storm system “appears to be quite anomalous compared to previous climate data”, with the “current projected strength for this time in March ‘occurring'” once every 10 years.

So yeah, it could be a doozy if things stay on track.

This GIF is an animation of daily rainfall over the next week.  You can see precipitation amounts increase Tuesday through Thursday in our region, with heavy rains and storms delivering even higher totals in the Deep South.

This GIF is an animation of daily rainfall over the next week. You can see precipitation amounts increase Tuesday through Thursday in our region, with heavy rains and storms delivering even higher totals in the Deep South.

It’s really pointless to show maps of the potential snowfall results at this time, as the snowy part of the system is still five days away (Wednesday), but there is room to show how much precipitation the models suggest might be associated. to this system.

The American, European and Canadian models all show significant precipitation. The amount of rain, sleet and snowfall is yet to be determined.

American model:

gfs-deterministic-minnesota-total_precip_inch-8998000

European model:

ecmwf-deterministic-minnesota-total_precip_inch-8944000

Canadian model:

gem-all-minnesota-total_precip_inch-8879200

We’ll see what happens, but for now keep checking our MN Weather Page. We will have meteorologist Sven Sundgaard tracking this system as it approaches, so we expect details to be worked out over the next few days.

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